Solution to Guess That Hand! (8/20/2006)

Thank you for your wonderful comments on my last Guess That Hand.

Let's recap the hand. You woke up to big slick (A-K offsuit) and threw in a strong pre-flop bet and a strong continuation bet on the flop. Both times you were called, and you ended up slowing down on the turn and your opponent bet into you and made you fold.

The hand the opponent had was... A-Q. Yes, you had him dominated throughout this hand, but his superiour position (sitting on the button) gave him enough of an advantage to take down this monster pot. Let's explain why through the eyes of the opponent.

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"I'm on the button, and I wake up to a decent A-Q. I have a strong bettor in middle position. Should I call and see a flop? I know he either has two big cards or a decent pocket pair. I'll just call."

"He bet out again on this flop big. His pot sized bet makes me think he is stealing this pot with two high cards, as a pocket pair would more than likely not bet that much into this pot. I'll call and see if he slows down on the turn."

"Bingo! He slowed down on the turn when it didn't hit him. Now he must assume I'm on a pair and have him beat. I'll bet out half the pot, because a pot sized steal is unneccessary here. He'll fold to almost any sized bet here. Plus the illusion that I'm pricing him into this pot for cheap might make him think I'm sitting on a big hand like a set and want to be called."
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This illustrates quite well that our man on the button could have had any two cards and probably would have taken this hand down. Having position on a player is very important because a good amount of time in a heads up situation, you are going to have both opponents miss the flop. Continuation bets are the defense that early position has, but if they at all waver and become scared of the person in position, the pot can be stolen away very quickly.

This is why you often hear poker pros say that they won't play certain hands in early position, but will play them in late position. The position not only allows you to garner more information from your opponents and their betting patterns, but it allows you to try a few tricky plays that might win you more money than if you had that same hand in early position.

"Play the player, not the cards."